The impact on economic from the swine flu

• Economic impact of swine flu •

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/stephanieflanders/2009/04/economic_impact_of_swine_flu.html

Many in the markets and elsewhere are now trying to estimate what the eventual economic cost of the outbreak might be. It's safe to say that none of them has a clue.

The scary starting point for these calculations is a study by the World Bank last year, which suggested that another truly global flu epidemic would end up costing nearly 5% of world GDP - or more than $3 trillion.

That's assuming a pandemic on the scale of the 1918 "Spanish Flu" outbreak, which infected around one third of the world's population and killed 50 million. Helpfully, the report concludes that a hit of this magnitude would throw the world into a depression. Of course, that could happen. But experts, who know more about viruses than I do, are still suggesting that the chances of such a catastrophe are small. We do have anti-viral drugs now that weren't available. And, they tell me, some version of flu already infects tens of millions of people a year, killing at least half a million of them, without leading to a pandemic on that scale.

What about the more recent and less alarming, example of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (Sars) in China and Hong Kong? That killed more than 700 people in 2003, and (according to the Asia Development Bank) cost the region between $18bn and $60bn in lost output - or 0.5-2.0% of regional GDP.

Many say it will be less this time, because the world is better prepared. And this virus seems a bit easier to treat. I'll leave that to others to judge.

But as Julian Jessop, chief international economist at Capital Economics, points out, even in the Sars case the costs turned out to much less than initially feared. If you look at the retail sales data in China it's a blip, but nothing more than that. A lot of the initial fall was made up later, when people made the purchases that they had previously put off. Ill-informed optimism is no better than ill-informed gloom. But if we are looking at something on the scale of the Sars issue now, my guess is that the same will be true this time. The costs will be less than some now fear.

Some have said that the impact will be greater, because the global economy is already in such a fragile state. At first glance that seems sensible - you could say that our global economic immune system is in a weak state to shrug this illness off.

[According to the world's financial crisis and the economic meltdown which has impacted every country all around the world, in order to completely recover the worlds economic, we do have to amend the old problem and also the imapct from swine flu too. Therefore, it will take times to heal those problems, perfectly]

But I suspect the opposite is true, that the economic costs of this virus might actually be less than it would otherwise have been, because some of the output that might have been lost to flu has already been lost to the recession. To put it bluntly, if unemployed people are forced to stay at home for a few weeks, that has a smaller economic cost than if they were all in work. And if people are already going out less to restaurants, cinemas and the like, the fall in consumption due to flu may be smaller than it would have been as well. Of course, you can't push this argument too far - any pandemic that killed millions of the working age population would have an enormous long-term impact on our potential output, regardless of whether they happened to be out of work when they died.

Assuming that this is more a Sars style outbreak, with widespread but short-term disruption to normal economic activity rather than millions of deaths, it is possible that the impact - in the midst of recession - will be less visible than it would have been a few years ago. But don't get me wrong, with the global economy as weak as it is, it would be far, far better not to be facing this threat at all.
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• Swine flu impacts global economy •

http://www.foodproductiondaily.com/Supply-Chain/Swine-flu-impacts-global-economy

The swine flu virus first identified in Mexico cannot be contained, warns Dr Margaret Chan, director-general of the World Health Organization (WHO), as the economic impact of the outbreak continues to spread.

The virus is now so widespread, the focus should switch from containing it to mitigating its impact, said Dr Chan. Yesterday the organization raised the level of influenza pandemic alert from Phase Three to Phase Four; indicating that the likelihood of a pandemic has increased, but was not inevitable.

[In my opinion, they should focus on both controlling the spread of Swine flu and the impact from it, equally because the flu can be infected anytime if we lack of guarding. On the other hand, economic can be worse anytime soon too so they should spit the priority, equally]

Meanwhile, in New York trading yesterday shares in Smithfield Foods, the world’s largest pork processor and Tyson Foods fell on fears that the outbreak will lead consumers to shun pork products. Smithfield shares fell by $1.28, or 12 per cent, to $9.04 and Tyson dipped 97 cents, or 8.9 percent, to $9.96, reports Bloomberg.

Pork consumption

Fears of a collapse in pork consumption have prompted safety re-assurances from, Tom Vilsack, US agriculture secretary. Villsack said in a statement: “….let me say again to consumers, there is no evidence at this time that US swine have been infected with this virus. “Second, I want to reiterate the same message to our trading partners - our pork and pork products are safe. The discovery of this virus in humans is not a basis for restricting imports of commercially produced US pork and pork products. Any trade restrictions would be inconsistent with World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) guidelines. USDA is working closely with the US Trade Representative's office on these issues.”

The National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) has confirmed that US pigs have not been infected with the virus and early investigations reveal that none of the people infected had contact with pigs. Tyson Foods also acted swiftly to try to re-assure it customers: “Our pork products are safe,” [Personally, I think people still fear to consume pork, no matter what] it said in a statement.

The company has no pork processing operations or pig farms in Mexico only poultry operations, it confirmed. “We are taking measures to tighten our existing biosecurity protocols to protect our hogs from this virus.”

Swine influenza

Smithfield Foods has said that it has found no clinical signs or symptoms of the presence of swine influenza in its pig herd or its employees at its joint ventures in Mexico. The company confirmed that it has no reason to believe that the virus is connected to its operations in Mexico and that its joint ventures in Mexico routinely administer influenza virus vaccination to their swine herds and conduct monthly tests for the presence of swine influenza. Yesterday, US soy and corn futures suffered their biggest one-day decline in over two months reflecting fears that a swine flu outbreak in North America was likely to undermine world meat consumption and demand for grain to feed animals.

China and Russia have banned pork imports from Mexico and three US states that have reported cases of swine flu. Similar action is expected from Indonesia. An existing ban on meat imports from Mexico to the EU will continue, confirmed officials. So far, the number of deaths in Mexico linked to the virus has reached 152, and cases have been reported in the U.S, Canada, Spain, UK and New Zealand. [The cases now reaching Asia]
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• ASEAN Plus Meeting Hopes to Limit Swine Flu's Economic Damage •

http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-05-06-voa24.cfm

Ministers and officials from the 10 nation Association of South East Asian Nations - ASEAN - as well as China, South Korea and Japan are set to meet in Thailand to boost regional cooperation in dealing with any outbreak of the swine influenza A-H1N1 virus. Officials say a key goal is to improve monitoring measures to avoid a wider impact on the region's economy, especially tourism and transport.

The meeting of health ministers and officials from the 10 member Association of South East Asian Nations hopes to boost regional cooperation in combating the threat from the swine flu virus in Asia.Due to get underway on Thursday, the meeting is scheduled to hear from United Nations officials, the United States' Secretary of Health and Human Services Kathleen Sebelius and Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO) Dr Margaret Chan by way of video conference.

But in a briefing with journalists Wednesday, Thai Health Ministry officials said a primary aim will be to limit the wider potential damage on the region's economy, especially in areas of transport and tourism.

"The whole region has many people traveling. So the hot issue is how to control the disease without any damage to the business sector, the tourism, and the transportation economy. So the leaders have to use their own judgment and we really hope we can do that to minimize the damages," said Dr. Kumnuan Ungchusak, a senior expert in preventive medicine from the Ministry of Public Health.Kumnuan said a proposal is to set possible geographical limits concerning any influenza outbreak rather than to designate a whole country as being infected with flu.

"At this meeting the technical people will try to propose not to use the whole country but specify - set one criterion - so we know where the outbreak is. In that case when we provide some information or traveling precaution it will be specific; if we can do that this will limit the impact on tourism," he said. Under this plan travel advisories would cover cities or regions rather than entire countries as well as providing for exit screening.

Discussions would also call for a survey of available medical supplies and stocks within the region and international organizations and ease of access to medical supplies at short notice.Cross border cooperation is also on the agenda especially in requests for medical supplies, hospital rooms and surveillance teams, as well as looking to call on the WHO to provide assistance, officials said.

Worldwide there are currently about 1,500 confirmed cases of swine flu infection in at least 21 countries. In Thailand, officials said, there were still no reported cases but strict surveillance remained in place. [Yes, we can't neglect to any situation. we need to gaurd and prevent the flu in many ways as much as possible]

But reports said officials from the Philippines were pressing for a more concerted regional effort to tackle the virus. The Philippines has placed five people under observation after showing flu like symptoms. Officials said the region is well prepared to face any potential widespread influenza outbreak given past experience in cooperation on the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2003 and in recent years the outbreak of bird flu across the region.

The meeting is scheduled to conclude Friday with an expected joint ministerial statement aimed at promoting collaboration among the ASEAN members as well as measures to combat a potential pandemic, with a hoped for political commitment to implement any measures.
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